Five Indian states contributing nearly 27% of the country’s gross domestic product are leading an economic recovery as it slowly emerges from the world‘s biggest deadlock, according to research by Alara Securities Inc.
Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Karnataka have seen a resumption of activity, based on an analysis of indicators such as energy consumption, traffic movements, the arrival of products agriculture in wholesale markets and Google’s mobility data, Garima Kapoor, an economist at Elara Securities in Mumbai, wrote in a note.
Some of the more industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat were late due to strict measures still in place to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, she said.
India will begin a gradual lifting of isolation nationwide from June 8, allowing shopping centers, restaurants and places of worship to reopen in areas where viral infections are under control.
“The best stimulus India can have is the resumption of normal economic activity,” said Kapoor. “The country is experiencing an improvement in its activity but it remains sporadic”.
Punjab and Haryana were among the states that have seen an improvement in electricity needs, reflecting demand from farms, the study showed. The national capital, Delhi, has also shown an increase in demand for electricity as well as mobility trends.
Kapoor looked at Google search trends to see if consumers are changing consumption patterns as they adjust to a “new lifestyle”.
The analysis showed that there was pent-up demand for salon services, air conditioners, air travel, bicycles, vacuum cleaners and washing machines. The research associated with buying panic when the lockdown was first announced – such as pharmacies and grocery stores and liquid soaps – has become more relaxed. Consumers have not stopped looking for items such as headphones, hair oil, laptops, cell phones, jewelry, mops, toys and microwave ovens.
“We expect demand to persist in the coming months, as some are schema-related changes linked to the virus,” said Kapoor.
(With the exception of the title, this story was not edited by GalacticGaming staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)