China is angry, acting more brutally

Kinmen, Taiwan:

The tank traps on the beaches of Kinmen Island are a stark reminder that Taiwan lives under the constant threat of a Chinese invasion – and fears of an outbreak of conflict are now at their highest in decades.

Democratic Taiwan has learned to live with warnings from authoritarian Beijing rulers that they are ready and willing to seize a place it sees as part of its territory.

But that static background has recently reached levels that are hard to ignore, with Chinese planes now crossing the Taiwan defense zone at an unprecedented rate and the People’s Liberation Army releasing propaganda simulating an invasion of the island – and even an attack on US bases in Guam. .

It’s not since the mid-1990s, when China fired missiles into the Taiwan Strait during a time of heightened tension, that the saber rattle hasn’t been so loud.

Sitting under a pavilion at Quemoy National University in Kinmen, an island ruled by Taiwan just off the Chinese mainland, freshman Wang Jui-sheng says he feels more than a little unstable.

“China is angry with Taiwan and is acting all the more brutally,” he told AFP.

“I am worried about the risk of military conflicts between the two sides, perhaps even in the near future.”

Kinmen (population 140,000) is just 2 miles from the mainland and was left in the hands of Nationalist forces at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 that formed modern China and Taiwan.

If Beijing’s troops ever crossed the Taiwan Strait, they would almost certainly have to take Kinmen first.

And if war does break out, it could easily follow in the United States – pitting two nuclear armies against each other.

– Breaking point –

Ian Easton, author of a book on What War Could Look Like, says the world is ignoring the spiraling tension in the Taiwan Strait at its peril.

“It is the most dangerous, unstable and important flash point on the planet,” senior director of the Project 2049 Institute, a China business think tank, told AFP. -Taiwan.

Historically, Beijing has used carrots and sticks to research what it sees as the unification of China, mingling sweet promises of shared prosperity with warnings of annihilation for Taiwan’s 23 million people.

But in recent years, the carrot has all but disappeared.

Four years ago, Taiwan voted for President Tsai Ing-wen, who sees the island as a sovereign state and not part of “one China.”

China cut off official communication and exerted economic, military and diplomatic pressure, in an attempt to get voters to nominate a more pro-Beijing politician next time around.

It did not work. Tsai won a second term by a landslide in January and polls show a growing number of voters now see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

– ‘Prepare for war’ –

Failure to win the hearts of Taiwanese – exacerbated by Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong and Xinjiang – may explain why President Xi Jinping has taken the most belligerent stance on Taiwan since the Mao Zedong era.

Xi, who removed presidential term limits two years ago, has made no secret of his goals.

He described the takeover of Taiwan as “an inevitable condition for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people” – a project he intends to complete by 2049, the centenary of the founding of Communist China.

During a trip earlier this month to an PLA base, he told the troops to “prepare for war”.

Captain James Fanell, former director of naval intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet, believes China will move to Taiwan in one form or another within the next 10 years.

“The reality is that China has always had a plan and they are on a schedule,” he told AFP from the Geneva Center for Security Policy, which he joined after his retirement in 2015.

“We are in the decade of concern right now.”

During his career, Fanell has seen China transform from a force of brown waters confined to its shores into a world-capable navy equipped with better hypersonic missiles and far more ships than the United States.

“For every ship we produce, they produce five times as much,” Fanell said.

He added that what makes Beijing’s plans in Taiwan so dangerous now, compared to earlier tense moments, is that China can now have enough military might to take over the island – although any invasion would be extremely costly.

– Will the United States support Taiwan? –

It is still unclear whether the United States will come to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack. Unlike Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, Taiwan is not an ally of the treaty.

But Washington is required by Congress to sell arms to Taiwan for self-defense, and says it opposes any radical change in the island’s status.

The policy – dubbed “strategic ambiguity” – was designed to ward off an invasion without directly confronting China.

But there are growing bipartisan discussions in the United States over whether a shift to strategic clarity is now needed given China’s more assertive approach.

“If Taiwan were conquered and occupied by the PRC (China), the American alliance system in Asia would be devastated,” Easton said.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has certainly embraced Taiwan as it clashes with Beijing on a multitude of issues.

Trump has been much more willing than his recent predecessors to sell major weapon systems to defeated Taiwan forces.

Over the past three years, the United States has struck deals worth at least $ 15 billion, including next-generation F16 fighter jets and mobile missile platforms.

It is not known whether Trump’s challenger Joe Biden will take a similar stance in Taiwan if he wins next week’s election.

As the great powers scramble, those who live in Kinmen desperately hope such weapons will never be needed.

“I don’t want to see a war break out because both sides will suffer,” said Tsai Yan-mei, a mainland Chinese who married a Taiwanese and lives in Kinmen.

“I hope to live a stable life,” she added. “I love democracy and freedom in Taiwan.”

(Except for the title, this story was not edited by GalacticGaming staff and is posted from a syndicated feed.)