Noche UFC Odds, Picks and Full Card Preview: Can Diego Lopes Shock Jean Silva?

The UFC’s Mexican Independence Day show keeps growing in size and stakes, even when the location changes. Originally targeted for Guadalajara, the third annual Noche UFC shifted to San Antonio’s Frost Bank Center due to construction delays, but the identity of the night stayed the same: a loud, pride-soaked showcase for Latin American talent, a stacked 14-fight card, and a main event that could tilt the featherweight title picture.

Seven Mexico-based fighters are spread across the bill. The opener is the TUF 33 welterweight final, and the headliner is a classic styles clash: submission hunter versus one-shot power. Oddsmakers expect chaos, bettors smell value, and the UFC gets a ready-made title eliminator on a weekend built for fireworks.

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva: Stakes, styles, and a live underdog

Diego Lopes is the fan favorite who turned momentum into leverage. He’s coming off a slick submission win over Sodiq Yusuff and now steps into his first UFC main event. Lopes has always had a dangerous guard, quick back takes, and a nose for fast transitions. What’s changed is his composure on the feet. He’s a lot calmer now, drawing counters instead of forcing them, and using feints to set up level changes. The threat of the choke opens his striking; the threat of the overhand opens his takedowns.

Jean Silva brings the kind of punch that resets game plans. He owns a 16-2 record with a five-fight win streak and a habit of turning technical fights into shootouts. He’s most dangerous when opponents move straight back—his right hand lands clean behind a stiff jab. He chips at legs early, touches the body when you square up, and keeps pressure without sprinting. That’s bad news for fighters who gas late or shoot from too far out.

The tension is simple: Can Silva keep the fight upright long enough to land something big, or will Lopes turn exchanges into scrambles and make Silva defend hands and wrists for minutes at a time? Silva’s takedown defense looks solid against single attempts in space, but we haven’t seen him ride out a full round under a top-shelf backpack. Lopes doesn’t need five takedowns; he needs one deep sequence. Silva doesn’t need five clean rounds; he needs a moment.

The market opened with Silva as the favorite and Lopes hovering near +210. That’s a fair reflection of Silva’s power and recent run, but it underrates how sticky Lopes can make these fights. If he forces clinch breaks against the fence, he’ll win the clock and the optics. If he latches onto a neck during a scramble, he’ll threaten the finish outright. In a five-rounder, the submission windows multiply. And on a night meant for statement wins, Lopes knows what a tap buys him. “This is the fight that puts me in line for the belt,” he told ESPN MMA. He’s not wrong.

Pick: Lopes moneyline (plus a small sprinkle on “Lopes by submission”). Method lean: Round 3 sub after prolonged control and a tiring scramble.

What it means at 145: The winner isn’t just gaining rank. He’s entering a title queue that’s been moving fast. A stoppage here could be enough to secure the next shot or, at worst, set up a clear No. 1 contender fight before year’s end.

Best bets, upset radar, and the fights casuals shouldn’t skip

Co-main event: Rob Font vs. David Martinez. This is a test in two directions—whether Font’s veteran game still shuts down surging punchers, and whether Martinez can level up on short notice. Font, 38, is fresh off a split decision over Jean Matsumoto. He’s built on a jab, clean entries, and smart footwork. He reads patterns quickly and usually wins long exchanges by the third round. The worry? He’s been hittable in pocket brawls and can get backed up if his jab stalls.

David “Black Spartan” Martinez steps in after Raul Rosas Jr. withdrew. At 12-1 with 10 knockouts, he starts hot and hits hard. Martinez likes to crash the pocket with combos, switch to the body, and force resets before you get your jab back. Short notice is a factor, but so is youth and pace. If he keeps Font in exchanges and puts his back to the fence, he’s live to bank two rounds.

Betting view: The book leans toward Font based on experience, but the dog has teeth. If you trust battle-tested process, Font by decision is the pick. If you’re hunting price, Martinez moneyline is a reasonable flyer, especially early-round props.

Kelvin Gastelum as a strong favorite (-260): The market knows what Gastelum brings—tight boxing combinations, sturdy takedown defense, and solid cardio over three rounds. He’s not the same whirlwind from a few years ago, but his process still holds: win the jab, win the pocket, win the minutes. Unless he runs into a rangy kicker who won’t bite or a takedown chain he can’t shrug off, he usually edges scorecards.

Pick: Gastelum by decision. He stacks banked minutes, not reckless swings.

Tatiana Suarez as the safety valve (-435): When Suarez gets her hands locked, the round flips. Chain wrestling, punishing rides, and suffocating top pressure turn even close fights into formality. She also brings real submission threat when opponents try to stand with their necks high. If you’re building a parlay, she’s the “reduce variance” leg, though at this price singles don’t make much sense.

Pick: Suarez inside the distance, leaning submission. Expect long rides, fence mat returns, and a squeeze that drains hope.

TUF 33 Welterweight Final: Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko. The early read from many analysts was a decision-heavy striking match that favors Donchenko. He’s a patient, long-range striker who jabs, pivots, and refuses to brawl on demand. Sezinando pressures more and can steal moments with bursts, but he’ll need to cage-cut and avoid chasing counters.

Pick: Donchenko by decision. Technical discipline over raw pace.

Upset alert: Montserrat Rendon vs. Alice Pereira. Pereira is an undefeated prospect with clean hands and timing, but Rendon is the kind of fighter who wins margins—clinches, fence control, little resets that swing rounds. If Pereira’s power doesn’t show early, Rendon’s pressure and persistence can turn the tide.

Pick: Rendon moneyline. Grind wins when flash fades.

Sedriques Dumas vs. Zachary Reese. Dumas is the better athlete with heavier kicks and improved shot selection. Reese is tall, awkward, and dangerous in chaos, but he leaves doors open in transitions and eats counters when he overextends. If Dumas keeps it clean for three minutes, he can take over with speed and accuracy.

Pick: Dumas by KO/TKO. Early finish potential and a live Performance of the Night candidate.

Alden Coria vs. Alessandro Costa. Costa is sharp and compact, with low kicks that add up. Coria wins with movement, scrambles, and a knack for making messy exchanges go his way. If this becomes a scramble-heavy fight, Costa’s low base can get pulled out from under him.

Pick: Coria moneyline, with a small look at Coria by late submission. Value lives in volatility.

Card shape and pace: Fourteen fights is a lot of minutes, and the UFC front-loaded action with a finale to start and a title eliminator to close. Expect the San Antonio crowd to ride with the Mexico-based names—volume scorers may get a silent boost if the opponent’s moments are cleaner, so don’t be shocked by split cards. Judges love forward motion when damage is close.

Parlay or singles? With several live underdogs, this is more of a singles card. Pick your shots, avoid three-plus-leg parlays that need chalk to hold, and consider round props where the stylistic read is strong. If you must parlay, Suarez is the anchor, Gastelum is the steady piece, and the rest are better left as straight plays.

Quick-hit picks summary:

• Diego Lopes (+) to win; sprinkle “by submission”
• Rob Font by decision (dog flyer on Martinez early if you prefer price)
• Kelvin Gastelum by decision
• Tatiana Suarez inside the distance (submission lean)
• Daniil Donchenko by decision (TUF 33 Final)
• Montserrat Rendon moneyline (upset)
• Sedriques Dumas by KO/TKO
• Alden Coria moneyline (value side; late sub sprinkle)

Why this night matters: The featherweight bracket needs fresh heat, and Lopes-Silva delivers it. A finish plants the winner at the front of the line. Beyond that, the UFC’s Independence Day showcase has become a reliable launchpad for Latin American talent—seven Mexico-based fighters, high-profile placement, and a crowd that rewards pressure and guts. Even with the venue switch from Guadalajara to Texas, the theme holds: this is a stage for momentum, and someone’s taking a big stride under bright lights.

Odds and lines move as action comes in, but the reads stay the same: live dogs, steady favorites, and a main event built for drama. If you like grappling risk and comeback potential, you’re on the Lopes side. If you trust one-shot insurance and takedown defense, you’re on Silva. Either way, somebody’s Saturday turns into a title push.