The research team used the travel history of infected patients as their primary data source (representation)
New Delhi:
Travelers from Dubai and the UK were the main sources of COVID-19 imports to India, according to analytical study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mandi.
According to the research, which was published in the Journal of Travel Medicine, COVID-19 was induced in Indian states primarily due to international travel.
The study also found that infected cases from Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh played less of a role in spreading the disease outside their communities. While infected people from Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka have played an important role in local transmission, and some of them have also caused interstate transfers.
“We have followed the spread of COVID-19 and its spread from global to national level and identified a few super spreaders who have played a central role in the transmission of the disease in India. The spread of COVID-19 in phase one has been traced using the traveling history of patients, and most transmissions were found to be local, ”Sarita Azad, assistant professor, IIT Mandi, told PTI.
The research team used the travel history of infected patients from January to April as their primary data source and a social network was created to illustrate the spread at the start of the pandemic. Research found that the maximum number connections have been established from Dubai (144) and the UK (64), ”she added.
Ms Azad explained that the statistical measures calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the UK play a crucial role in the spread of the disease in Indian states and are the main sources of COVID-19 imports into India.
“The centrality of Dubai’s eigenvectors was the highest which made it the most influential node. Statistical measures calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the United Kingdom played a crucial role in the spread of the disease in Indian states and were the main sources of COVID-19 imports into India.
“Based on the modularity class, different clusters have formed in Indian states, which has demonstrated the formation of a multi-level social network structure. A significant increase in confirmed cases was reported in states such as Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh during the first phase of the national lockdown, which ran from March 25 to April 14, ”she said. .
“The modularity class of states such as Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh was low. Therefore, it is likely that infected cases from these states played a smaller role in the spread of the disease outside their communities. While states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka have played an important role in local transmission, and some of them have also caused interstate transfers ”, she added.
Ms Azad, who conducted the analytical study, along with her student Sushma Devi, said: “When a pandemic like COVID-19 goes away, good research work sets a record for the future. In this work, we used real-time data and demonstrated how the disease spread from global to national level from January 30 to April 6. This will be an important contribution to understanding the transmission of the disease in India during the early phase of the pandemic. “
The number of COVID-19 cases in India approached 60 lakh with 88,600 new infections reported on Sunday, while the number of people recovering from the disease crossed 49 lakh, pushing the national cure rate to 82.46 %, according to the Union Ministry of Health.
The total number of coronavirus cases climbed to 59.92,532, while the death toll climbed to 94,503 with 1,124 people succumbing to the disease within 24 hours, according to data updated at 8 a.m.
