The US presidential race is heading towards a close finish, according to polls.
Washington, United States:
The US presidential race is heading to a close end, with the margins between US President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden narrowing, especially in key battlefield states, latest opinion polls said on Monday. on the eve of the elections.
Biden, 77, led Trump, 74, in major battlefield states by 2.9 percentage points, which is within a margin of error, according to Real Clear Politics, which averages major polls of opinion.
Biden’s lead has waned in recent days, as Trump and his family virtually bombed major battlefield states, including as many as 15 Presidential rallies.
The First Family with Vice President Mike Pence collectively organized over 40 rallies in the last three days of the election.
Biden, his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, as well as former President Barack Obama have also stepped up their public appearances in recent days, but nowhere does that match that of the Trump campaign.
On the eve of the election, Biden was in Ohio, while Obama was campaigning in Florida. Harris was in Pennsylvania.
Trump was hosting five rallies in five key battlefield states: North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Nationally, Trump, according to Real Clear Politics, was on average 6.5 percentage points behind against Biden.
Until a few days ago, Biden’s lead was around eight percentage points. On Monday, the Trump and Biden campaigns gave off confidence to win the race on Tuesday night.
A majority of the mainstream media, however, said on Monday that Trump had an uphill battle to win the election, given he continues to lag behind in the polls in key states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, United States of America. Arizona and Wisconsin. A few media outlets say Texas, which has traditionally remained a GOP stronghold, is also on the line this year.
Trump supporters argue that the polls do not reflect realities on the ground and, like 2016, the president would win the election with a much stronger tenure.
Nate Silver of the big FiveThirtyEight.Com said on Monday that Trump had about a 10% chance of winning the election. In particular, he was wrong in 2016.
As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. The projected margins in the tipping point states are considerably tighter than the margins of the national popular vote. Specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania – the tipping point more likely – the state of the points, according to our predictions – is strong but not spectacular: around 5 points in our survey average, ”wrote Silver.
Nate Silver said that if Biden won the popular vote by 2-3 percentage points, the Electoral College was pretty much a draw. But if Biden wins the popular vote by less than 2 points, Trump is a favorite heavy enough to win the election, he wrote.
“Even popular voting margins of up to 6 points aren’t entirely safe for Biden if his votes are distributed exactly the wrong way. So you can see why an 8 or 9 point lead in the popular vote shouldn’t. give the impression to Biden. that’s for sure, while it’s an overwhelming margin, it’s just a few points taken out of the inflection point where the Electoral College begins to become competitive, ”a- he argued.
According to the New York Times, if the polls are correct, Joe Biden could claim the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing that of Bill Clinton in 1996. “That’s a big” if. “,” It said.
“The indelible memory of the 2016 ballot failures, when Donald J. Trump lagged behind in virtually every pre-election poll and yet swept states off the battlefield and won the Electoral College, loomed over the 2020 campaign. Mr Biden’s unusually persistent advance did little to dispel questions of whether the polls could be turned off again, ”the daily said.
“President Trump needs a very big poll error to win the White House. Joe Biden would win even if the polls were as bad as in 2016,” he said.
