Ms Mazumdar-Shaw also noted that 20% of India’s population was a large number of people (file)
Bengaluru:
India must now develop its vaccination strategy on its own on delivering the COVID-19 vaccine to the population upon its release, says biotech industry veteran Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw.
“The vaccine is anyone’s guess. From the end of this year until the middle of next year, that is the prediction, the executive chairman of the large biopharmaceutical company Biocon Ltd, based in the city, said of the timing against its availability.
She said some vaccination programs had just started phase 3 clinical trials, with phases 1 and 2 showing mixed signals.
So we’re not sure, she said and, citing reports from the US, added: It seems that each vaccine requires two doses (per person). So it’s not cheap, she told PTI in an interview.
If the government can get at least 20% of the population most at risk to be vaccinated, we can somehow create control over the virus.
But Ms. Mazumdar-Shaw also noted that 20% of India’s population is a whopping 200-300 million people.
Will the government bear it (cost), she asked. So you have to look at the pharmacoeconomics and the immunological rationale, and find a balance between the two.
Epidemiologists need to model the minimum number of people who should be vaccinated when the vaccine is released. We obviously cannot immunize 1.3 billion people (the total population of the country) in such a short time because there won’t be enough vaccines, she said.
Even if vaccine producers were to manufacture a billion doses, it cannot be done in a month.
“The maximum you can produce is 80 to 100 million doses per month. So who are the first 100 million people who will be vaccinated? This is the kind of planning we need to do now,” she said.
If the Bharat Biotech vaccine, or the Zydus Cadila vaccine starts to show promising good results, we could also have it (vaccine) by the end of the year, Mr. Mazumdar-Shaw said.
On when she expected coronavirus cases to peak in the country, she said there were various forecasts and projections and each part of the country was on a different level.
