An almost deserted street in Melbourne. The city was ranked last year as the second most livable city in the world.
As countries around the world grapple with the prospect of further lockdowns, the Australian city of Melbourne offers a tough lesson in the costs of containing the coronavirus.
The city of 5 million people emerged from one of the world‘s toughest and longest lockdowns on Wednesday, which has closed businesses and confined residents to their homes for more than three months.
As infections went from a daily peak of around 700 in early August to just two new cases on Wednesday, the economic and social impact of Melbourne’s second lockdown since the start of the crisis has been enormous. The Australian government estimates that 1,200 jobs have been lost on average per day in the state of Victoria, while demand for mental health services has increased by more than 30%.
Despite key factors working in Melbourne’s favor, including closed borders, minimal infections by international standards, and a state government with strong public support, it still took twice as long than expected to crush the curve.
It is a grim reality facing political leaders, especially in Europe, who have already suffered the damage caused by large-scale lockdowns and are now weighing the options to tackle a resurgence of the pandemic. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example, is pushing for tighter restrictions on movement and contact, including the closure of bars, restaurants and leisure facilities until the end of November, according to a draft document federal government information obtained from Bloomberg.
Australia was at the forefront of nations that had succeeded in controlling community transmission early on. Its first nationwide lockdown, which lasted roughly from March to May, reduced the number of cases to a handful per day.
But security failures at quarantine hotels for returning travelers, poor communication of critical information to migrant communities and inadequate contact tracing have allowed the virus to return to Victoria.
On July 7, State Prime Minister Daniel Andrews announced a six-week lockdown, ordering Melbourne residents to stay home except for essential jobs and services, medical care, school or a hour of exercise per day. Less than a month later, as cases continued to rise, restrictions were extended statewide, Melbourne was placed under a nighttime curfew, schools were closed and large parts of the retail, manufacturing and hospitality were closed.
With Victoria accounting for about a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product, the restrictions worsened Australia’s first recession in nearly 30 years.
The lockdown reduced economic activity by A $ 100 million ($ 71 million) per day, and through August and September a daily average of 1,200 jobs were lost in the state, Luke Yeaman said, a Treasury Department official, to a parliamentary panel this week.
Plane on the ground at Melbourne airport on September 1. The coronavirus has destroyed the international operations of national carrier Qantas, flights abroad are not expected to resume until the middle of next year.
Long recovery
Business leaders say it may take years for Melbourne – ranked the second most livable city in the world last year – to recover. Melbourne chief Scott Pickett has warned that ongoing capacity restrictions will continue to hit restaurants and cafes and many will back down once government wage subsidies end early next year.
“Some people might come in at Christmas in January and say they can’t do that anymore,” said Pickett, owner of Bistro Estelle. “It’s going to be a bloodbath over there at some point.”
“This is the start of a long road to recovery,” said Michael Madrusan, co-owner of Made in the Shade, which operates locations in the city including the Everleigh Cocktail Bar. “We haven’t gotten out of the woods just because we can open the doors.”
Social costs are also increasing. The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners reports that demand for health services across the country has increased by 15% since early March and 31% between September and October in Victoria. Alcohol consumption has increased and domestic violence has increased.
“Being allowed out for just an hour a day was horrible,” said Tessa Patrao, 27, who is finally back to work as an elementary school teacher after being ordered to stay home for 112 days. The second lockdown was even more difficult than the first, especially as much of the country had returned to normal, she said.
While the governments of the UK, Italy and Germany have faced protests against the second lockdowns, the Victorians have largely complied. This is in part due to the popularity of the state’s Labor government, which won the 2018 election by a landslide, and Prime Minister Andrews’ high approval ratings. The carrot and stick approach taken by authorities also helped, with payments of AU $ 1,500 for people who could not afford to self-isolate and court-imposed fines of up to 20,000. Australian dollars for repeated violations of segregation orders.
Circuit breakers
“It would have been impossible to control significantly if there was no community support,” said Terry Slevin, CEO of the Public Health Association of Australia. “This is an example where a pact between a government and a community that was guided by expert advice produced a valuable public health outcome.”
According to Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University in Melbourne, it is probably too late for the UK, US and European countries to replicate Melbourne’s success in crushing the news infections. Instead, authorities would likely opt for 2 to 3 week breaker lockouts to ease the burden on the public health system.
“A circuit breaker could just help put it back online and allow it to be contained,” she said. “But unless you are gone very early,” it is very difficult to reduce new cases to zero.
The lockdown may have canceled the virus for now, but it’s clear from epidemics around the world that it can come back with a vengeance if not paired with ongoing demands like wearing mask, social distancing, temperature controls and testing and rugged contacts. tracing scheme. Such “living with the virus” elements are in place in countries like Korea, Japan and China, which have been able to keep their cases under control.
“Australians need to discuss what the new normal looks like so that we can live alongside this virus without further lockdowns,” said Jennifer Westacott, CEO of the Business Council of Australia. “If masks and hand sanitizers are the new norm now, is everyone on board? The big question is whether Australians are ready to fully adapt their lives to the Covid era. “
