According to the study, reducing the maximum number of occupants may be more effective.
Reopening restaurants, gyms and hotels carries the greatest risk of the spread of Covid-19, according to a study that used mobile phone data from 98 million people to model the risk of infection in different locations.
Researchers at Stanford University and Northwestern University used data collected between March and May in cities across the United States to map the movement of people. They looked at where they were going, how long they had stayed, how many others were there and what neighborhoods they were coming to. They then combined that information with data on the number of cases and how the virus is spread to create infection patterns.
In Chicago, for example, the study model predicted that if restaurants were to reopen at full capacity, they would generate nearly 600,000 new infections, three times more than with other categories. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature, also found that about 10% of the sites examined accounted for 85% of the expected infections.
This kind of very granular data “shows us where there is a vulnerability,” said Eric Topol, of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, who was not involved in the study. “Then you have to focus on the areas that light up.”
In an opinion piece published simultaneously in Nature, Marc Lipsitch and Kevin Ma at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, wrote that epidemiological data on how interventions reduce infection is limited. Such models, they said, can serve as a starting point to guide political decisions about reopening.
Models produced in the study reported on Tuesday also suggest that full lockdowns are not needed to keep the virus at bay. Masks, social distancing, and reduced ability can all play a major role in keeping things under control.
Capping the occupancy rate at 20% in locations in the Chicago metro area reduced new infections predicted in the study by more than 80%. And because occupancy caps have mainly affected only the number of visits that typically occur during peak hours, restaurants only lost 42% of their customers overall.
According to the study, reducing the maximum number of occupants could be more effective than less targeted measures to combat the virus, while also providing economic benefits.
Reopening strategies
“We need to think about strategies for reopening the economy,” said Jure Leskovec, computer scientist at Stanford University and lead author of the article. “This allows us to test different reopening scenarios and assess what that would mean for the spread of the virus.”
Without mitigation measures for the virus, he said, they predicted that a third of the population could be infected with the virus. When adapting their model to publicly available data on the daily number of infections, the researchers found that it could better predict epidemic trajectories than other models.
The model also suggests how effective lockdowns can be in public spaces by noting infections and the use of those spaces over time as cities implement lockdowns.
In Miami, for example, hotel-inspired infections peaked around the same time the city was making headlines for the wild beach parties that were prevalent despite the pandemic. But those forecasts have shrunk considerably as the lockdown measures have taken effect.
Income disparities
The work also predicted a disparity in infections among income groups. Low-income populations are more likely to be infected, they found, as they are more likely to visit smaller, more crowded places and less likely to reduce their mobility in general.
The idea that restaurants can feed a new wave of infections as they open isn’t unique to this study. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said on Monday it found the level of in-person spending at restaurants three weeks ago to be the best predictor of new cases.
Likewise, higher spending in supermarkets indicated a slower spread, suggesting shoppers in those regions may live more conservatively, according to researchers at the bank, which tracks spending by 30 million cardholders. Chase credit and debit.
Topol said he believes all of these layers of data could be combined into a national virus dashboard that could help policymakers create smarter, more targeted policies for virus mitigation. He advocated the use of fitness trackers as another way to flag potential virus hot spots.
Leskovec said his team was currently working on building a tool that officials could use to make reopening decisions.
“Further model testing is needed,” Ma and Lipsitch wrote in their op-ed, “but given the challenges of collecting and interpreting other relevant types of data, these results could play a role. a valuable role in guiding political decisions on how to reopen society safely and the harm caused by restrictions on movement. “
(Except for the title, this story was not edited by GalacticGaming staff and is posted from a syndicated feed.)
