Currently, France records between 40,000 and 50,000 new cases every day. (File)
Paris:
Europe risks being hit by new waves of coronavirus infections next year, the French scientific council has warned, as the continent scrambles to cope with a second deadly spike in Covid-19 cases.
Even though partial lockdowns put in place across Europe reduce the rate of new infections, further waves of disease are likely in the absence of a vaccine, the council said.
French President Emmanuel Macron last week announced a national lockdown until December 1, citing the findings of the council, which includes France’s top pandemic experts and advises the government on health policy.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed suit on Saturday, announcing a month-long partial closure in England – including restaurants and pubs – which is expected to begin later this week.
Germany will adopt similar measures from Monday, with residents of the country confined to their homes and all bars, restaurants, theaters and cinemas closed.
Spain has imposed a nighttime curfew and the Italian government is expected to announce new restrictions on Monday.
In France, Macron said the goal of his nationwide lockdown was to reduce the number of daily infections to 5,000.
Currently, France records between 40,000 and 50,000 new cases every day.
The second wave ravaging Europe could ease in late December or early 2021, the French council said in a statement released Friday evening.
“On-off strategy?
“It depends on the virus itself, its environment, the measures that will be taken to limit the circulation of the virus and the level of compliance,” he said.
But in the absence of a vaccine – which is not expected to be widely available until the start of the new year – more outbreaks are likely on the horizon.
“It is likely that these measures – even if they are optimized – will not be enough to avoid further waves,” the council said.
“We could thus have several successive waves at the end of winter and in the spring of 2021.”
Weather conditions, the effectiveness of testing and traceability policies and the severity of lockouts will all have an impact on their timing, intensity and duration, the experts added.
“We are therefore moving into managing successive waves of outbreaks … until the vaccines arrive,” the council said, adding that new outbreaks would not necessarily be seasonal.
The advisory body highlighted several possible strategies for dealing with successive waves of infection.
One would be a partial lockdown “on / off strategy” to restrict the virus from circulating, although tolerance for such measures may be an issue.
“Will the French accept such a strategy? Is it viable for the economy? The questions are there and they remain unanswered for the moment,” concluded the council.
Another approach favored by several Asian countries, Denmark, Finland and Germany aims to limit the number of new cases below a certain threshold – in France, 5,000 per day – and to act quickly if the cases are starting to skyrocket.
This “early intervention” strategy would be the least damaging to long-term economies, the council said.
(Except for the title, this story was not edited by GalacticGaming staff and is posted from a syndicated feed.)
